Rivals national recruiting director Adam Gorney takes a look at which states have produced the most NFL prospects in recent years, why Georgia doesn’t have any five-star prospects in the 2023 class yet and why he thinks there could still be a ton of movement in the rankings when it comes to the receiver position.

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Breaking down the last four NFL Drafts by where the players went to high school presents a lot of interesting information. Some of it’s good, some of it’s bad (for programs in those states) and some might even be useful when we’re looking at rankings for the 2023 class and beyond. Here are some things I learned:

Over the last four NFL Drafts, 125 players selected played their high school ball in Texas. That state leads the way followed by Florida (114) and California (86), while Georgia (85) is starting to really emerge as arguably the third-most important state when it comes to recruiting numbers.

In the 2022 NFL Draft, 30 players from the state of Georgia were picked compared to California (22) and Florida (21). While one year’s numbers don’t tell the whole story it’s pretty clear from recruiting trends and rankings that the state of Georgia is producing both quantity and quality.

It’s also important to note that Georgia won the national championship this year with a good deal of players from the state as big-time contributors and then former Thomaston (Ga.) Upson Lee standout Travon Walker was the No. 1 overall pick.

What’s also interesting when looking at these numbers is that despite players from the state of Texas leading the way in terms of NFL Draft picks by a decent margin, the in-state programs have not made that pay off. Many players have left the state but no team – not Texas, not Texas A&M, nobody – has made the College Football Playoff yet. That’s surprising given the amount of NFL talent from the state.

A similar argument could be made in Florida and California, too. The amount of coaching turnover at the Big Three in Florida has slowed progress there although high school talent continues to steam along. California produces a boatload of NFL players, too, but USC has struggled for years and many of the best ones have left the state recently.

Georgia bucked the trend by winning the national championship this past season but the last time a college team from one of those other big states won a title was Florida State in 2013.

Over the next few years, it’s more than possible that Georgia becomes the third-most productive state for NFL talent. It will be interesting to see if the Bulldogs can keep them home, and keep winning championships.

There are currently 16 five-stars in the 2023 class so about halfway to where we want to be before signing day give or take a few. So in the vein above discussing the state of Georgia’s success in pumping out elite players and NFL talent, why are there none from that state yet?

Good question.

It is a slightly down year in Georgia but I don’t think there is any question that Hoschton (Ga.) Mill Creek safety Caleb Downs will be in the five-star discussion along with offensive tackle Johnathan Hughley, defensive ends Gabriel Harris and Victor Burley and possibly others.

We won’t force a five-star ranking just because the recruit is from the state of Georgia but there are definitely names out there that would be excellent candidates.

That also does leave four-star running back Justice Haynes, who will play his senior season at Buford, to consider. He’s currently the No. 1 prospect in the Georgia state rankings but as has been discussed often before, ranking a running back as a five-star based on position value and where NFL teams take players off the board at that spot, it might be tough, but not impossible.

In early June, there will be a re-rank for the 2023 class and wide receiver is going to be one of those positions – whether this time or through this rankings cycle – where this is going to be a ton of debate about the top order.

Right now, it goes Brandon Inniss, Shelton Sampson, Carnell Tate, Zachariah Branch, Hykeem Williams and Jalen Brown. But all six of those receivers are different in many ways while all being highly skilled and excellent pass catchers.

Am I married to Inniss being No. 1 at the position? No, because when I saw Tate during a 7-on-7 tournament this spring he was outstanding and has physical tools unlike anybody else in this class except for maybe Williams. Which brings up another interesting debate: How much should we take into account Williams’ outstanding physical tools versus the incredible dynamic ability of Branch or the consistency of Inniss?

A big debate is coming.