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Published May 12, 2021
The hidden value of Jordan Davis
Brent Rollins  •  UGASports
Analyst
Twitter
@BrentRollinsPhD

How do you slow down or stop today's elite college football offenses? It's the question defensive coordinators across the country are constantly trying to answer. We know the passing game has become the primary focus and, therefore, if you don't cover receivers or pressure the quarterback on a consistent basis, what value do you bring as a defensive player?

That brings us to the case of returning senior interior defensive lineman Jordan Davis.

He obviously doesn't cover receivers. Davis only has 16 total quarterback pressures on 382 career pass-rush snaps and has played just 495 of a possible 1,616 defensive snaps over the past two seasons. Thus, does he actually provide any value on Georgia's defensive line?

Very much so, but likely not in the way you may think.

The new "base" defense

Above is what Georgia's defense could look like in the opener against Clemson in its now-"base" personnel, with two interior defensive linemen, two edge defenders, two inside linebackers, and five defensive backs. This 4-2-5 personnel was used on 65 percent of defensive plays a season ago, with 87 percent of the defense's snaps having five or more defensive backs on the field. Clearly, the focus is committing as many players as possible to coverage and slowing down the passing game, as only six Bulldogs defenders are "in the box" in this alignment.

In fact, the Bulldogs had six or fewer defenders in the box on non-goal-line first or second down plays 67 percent of the time, and still had the highest run defense grade in the Power 5 (91.4) on early downs. The ability to stop/slow down the opponent's running game with so few defenders is one key to defensive football in today's passing-focused game. Explosive teams cannot be given easy yardage or an advantage in the running game. Georgia does this as well as anyone in the country, and Davis is a big reason why.

Running game impact

In 367 career run-defense snaps, Davis has 36 solo stops and only four missed tackles on 53 attempts. His ability to be a two-gap player, i.e. covering the gaps to both his left and right, as he does in the play above, is as good as any defensive lineman in the nation. His 84.7 career run defense grade is 10th-best among SEC interior linemen during the past three years, with names ahead of him that include first-round picks Quinnen Williams, Jeffrey Simmons and Derrick Brown.

Davis' impact in the running game, though, is often indirect. His strength and athleticism help him occupy both space and blockers, rarely getting pushed enough to create a true hole in the middle. Above, the right guard has the angle on Davis for the down block, but Davis pushes the guard into the running back before Jalen Carter comes down to make the play.

While it is hard to notice from the clip's viewpoint, the Bulldogs again had only six players in the box, as Mark Webb blitzed from the right side while Azeez Ojulari dropped back.

Passing game impact

As mentioned above, Davis is minimally productive as an individual pass rusher, with only 16 total quarterback pressures on 382 pass-rush snaps. However, much like his productivity in the running game centers on what he does for others, the passing game is no different. Here, Davis occupies the guard with an outside rush, allowing Ojulari a clean lane to the quarterback on the inside stunt. Not many 330-pounders give coaches the ability to use them on this type of stunt. Davis would have to be the contain/edge player if the quarterback evaded the pocket toward his side.

For the first season of his career, the Bulldogs were statistically better with Jordan Davis on the field (-0.159 expected points added per play) versus when he was not (-0.107 EPA per play)*. Notice on the interception above, Georgia only rushed four defenders and dropped seven into coverage. While his own individual statistics do not show much of an impact, Davis' return and skillset are highly valuable to Georgia's defense. That value lies in his ability to be a supreme run defender, thus allowing Kirby Smart and Dan Lanning the luxury of being able to commit less box defenders to stopping the run and more players focused on defending the pass.


*The more negative the number the better*

*For more on the true mathematical value of interior run defenders like Davis at the NFL level, here's an article analyzing the data at PFF.*

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