In the Zone

PAT’s WEEKLY STAT (you likely won’t see anywhere else—and there’s probably good reason why): Scoring 39 of 40 times it has reached the opposition’s 20-yard line this season, Georgia currently ranks No. 1 in the 130-member FBS in Red Zone Conversions at 97.50 percent. Likewise, the Bulldogs currently rank No. 3 in the FBS in [fewest] Opponent Red Zone Conversions at 62.50 percent, as their opposition has scored just 10 of 16 times it has reached Georgia’s 20-yard line.

Virginia Tech (No. 4 in Red Zone Conversions, No. 14 in Opponent Red Zone Conversions) is the only other team that ranks in the top 15 in both categories. Just as impressive, perhaps, is the fact that Georgia’s current red-zone rankings are up—and significantly—from last season, when the Bulldogs' red-zone rankings were No. 13 (90 percent in Red Zone Conversions) and No. 107 (89.19 percent in Opponent Red Zone Conversions).

But not all “scores”are created equal: For an offense, scoring a touchdown in the red zone is obviously preferable to scoring a field goal, and vice versa on defense. Perhaps a more telling red-zone statistic is one actually not maintained by the NCAA—Red Zone Efficiency, or the average points scored per red-zone possession (offense and defense).

In its trips to the red zone this season, Georgia has scored 225 points while yielding 54 points to its opponents—that’s a Red Zone Efficiency of 5.63 points on offense and 3.38 points on defense.

The following is the FBS’ top 10 in Red Zone Conversions and Opponent Red Zone Conversions. Just out of interest, I’ve included each team’s Red Zone Efficiency as well:

Georgia ranks No. 1 in the percentage of red-zone trips where it scored. Notably, the Bulldogs’ 5.63 points per red-zone possession isn’t even ranked in the top half of the top 10 in Red Zone Conversions. On the contrary, while Georgia ranks No. 3 in Opponent Red Zone Conversions, it also ranks toward the top in Red Zone Efficiency–Defense of the 10 teams being measured:

Beginning in 2002, or, when red-zone points scored were first recorded by UGA, up to 2019 (through the Auburn game), the following is a season-by-season look at the Bulldogs’ Red Zone Efficiency on offense (red line) and defense (black line). On offense, Georgia has averaged 5.02 points per red-zone possession for the 18-season period with a high of 5.75 in 2017 and a low of 4.07 in 2015. On defense, the Bulldogs have yielded an average of 4.55 points per opponent’s red-zone possession since 2002, with a high (lowest average) of 2.90 in 2003 and a low (highest average) of 5.67 in 2016.

Notably, for four of the 17 measured seasons entering 2019, the Bulldogs actually averaged fewer points per red-zone possession than they yielded: 2005 (scored 4.53, allowed 4.84 = minus-0.31 margin), 2010 (minus-0.15 margin), 2011 (minus-0.35 margin), and 2016 (minus-0.92 margin).

At the current rate this season, Georgia’s Red Zone Efficiency–Offense of 5.63 would be the Bulldogs’ second-best mark behind 5.75 from two years ago, while their 3.38 average in Red Zone Efficiency–Defense would also be the team’s second-best mark, only trailing 2.90 from 2003.

Also this season, Georgia’s Red Zone Efficiency margin of plus-2.25 points would easily surpass the team’s current high of plus-1.65 in 2003, demonstrating, whether when reaching the opposition’s 20-yard line or allowing foes to reach theirs, when it comes to the red zone in 2019, the Bulldogs have been in the zone.