Football 101: Analytics Part 2

Dayne Young and Brent Rollins collaborate to discover the nuances of the Georgia Bulldogs and college football.

*All grades and other data via www.PFF.com*

This is part of a football 101 series where we lay out explanations and the merits of different football concepts.

View Part 1 of this piece here.

Brent: In Part 1 of our Football 101 focus on analytics (link above), we primarily focused on all things value, or what the math and research has shown to be the most valuable elements of the game that translate to winning. This week, we are going to focus on situational elements, both from a statistical and play calling standpoint. We are even going to show some of these elements in a 'do this, not that' format. Thus, when you put the two parts together, you'll have your armchair quarterback's guide to analyze, and maybe even criticize, in-game decision making based on what the analytics of the game would suggest.

Dayne: Situational football is what separates a good coach from a good planner. Traditional football logic says one thing, analytics say another. We are still relatively young in the analytics movement and I don't think we often see coaches make bold decisions in important moments simply because the numbers say so. Here are some of the situations where many coaches should rethink what they normally do.

Brent: Where does D'Andre Swift first get touched on this run? Yes, his speed, burst, vision and slight little cuts turn this run into a big play, but how much of the success of this play was because of the blocking downfield by Andrew Thomas, Charlie Woerner and Matt Landers? Overall, multiple data studies, including ones from PFF, have shown success in the running game depends on offensive line play, field position (i.e. not in the red zone) and the number of defenders in the box more than anything to do with the running back's own ability. Scheme also becomes just as important. Thus, that is why sometimes you see an 18 carry, 176-yard performance receive an average grade in our system. When isolating the running back's performance, you can a different story in the clips below.

Dayne: D'Andre Swift often made defenders miss. This was the first game of the season when Georgia's halfhearted attempt at the option read was still enough to make defenders stutter. As the season progressed and there was little willingness for the quarterback to keep the football, defenses lost respect and focused on the running back. Just because a run works in Game 1 does not mean it will work in Game 10.