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Published Nov 24, 2017
An Unbalanced Offense: Personnel or Play-Calling?
Patrick Garbin  •  UGASports
Team & Research Writer
Twitter
@PatrickGarbin

For even the most critical of Bulldog enthusiasts, there has been little to disapprove of during what could eventually be a very special season. Still, of those who criticize, there’s a very good possibility they disapprove of the Bulldogs’ unbalanced offense—their lack of a passing game, especially when it seems advisable.

Georgia enters its game tomorrow at Georgia Tech with a run adjusted percentage (i.e., adjusted to consider sacks as passing plays, the percent of a team’s offensive plays it runs the football) of 69.2 percent—the sixth highest of the 129 teams in the FBS. And, get this, the five teams which rank above the Bulldogs in running the ball—Army (91.4), Navy (86.3), Georgia Tech (81.5), Air Force (81.3) and Georgia Southern (71.9)—and the two ranked directly below them—Tulane (68.9) and New Mexico (68.5)—just happen to be the seven FBS programs which currently execute a run-oriented flexbone offense.

Furthermore, since detailed sacks statistics became readily available in 1993, Georgia’s run adjusted percentage for the entire 25-season period is a balanced 52.9 percent, while its second-highest annual rate behind this season’s run ratio—61.3 percent in 2014—is not even all that close to the top.

Evidently, the current Bulldogs run the ball just as often as a flexbone team, while their infrequency to pass hasn’t been exhibited by the program since the three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust Vince Dooley era from 30 to 50 years ago. But, so what?

So, therein lies the criticism from those who disapprove including, evidently, an individual whose viewpoint would seem to be of the utmost importance.

“I think that each game is different. I think each opponent is different,” Kirby Smart said this week when asked if running the ball essentially 70 percent of the time could continue Georgia’s winning ways, including capturing a championship. “I think that you have a base foundation of balance and balance is what we want. … So, to be able to win a championship, you got to have balance.”

Granted, I doubt the Bulldogs’ head coach desires a perfect run-pass balance of 50-50 but, assuredly, a 69-31 ratio is not preferable—like, not at all. The question then could be asked if Coach Smart wants his offense to be more balanced, why not just pass the ball more?

From what I gather from those who disapprove of Georgia’s offensive imbalance, there are two leading notions as to why the Bulldogs aren’t passing more—being more balanced—or, at least, throwing the football on occasion when situations don’t dictate: a lack in personnel and flawed play-calling.

A lack in personnel is specifically the idea that there is a deficiency in the Bulldogs’ offensive line play. The line’s coach, Sam Pittman, has been rightfully recognized as a near miracle worker for his unit’s performance after it entered this season as arguably the team’s biggest question mark. Still, it can be deduced that it’s easier and more straightforward for an offensive line to run block than pass block, as there is little recognition associated with the former and it’s not as sophisticated. Often, a good run-blocking line is given the opportunity to disguise any weakness, like if it struggles with pass blocking, by plowing through an overmatched and thinner defensive front—similarly to how flexbone offenses routinely operate. Therefore, if such is the case at Georgia, the Bulldogs might desire to be more balanced, but they simply cannot because of their upfront personnel’s deficiency in pass blocking.

Next, there’s the idea that Georgia is at least satisfactory in all facets of its offense, including pass blocking, yet simply because of the abundance of runs called, the Bulldogs are not balanced offensively. In other words, predictable running plays—not a lack in personnel—while hardly taking shots downfield on early downs, seldom passing to tight ends, scarcely throwing screen passes, etc., are the reasons for Georgia’s imbalance.

Yet, according to the Bulldogs’ head coach, when most appropriate for the offense to be balanced this season, it has been.

“Some of our imbalance this year has been indicated by the games, the scores,” Smart said. “If you take one-score games and you do the ratio run-to-pass, it's not going to be the same as the games that we have had leads and we're running the clock out. There's a distinct difference in those.”

Below is Georgia’s play selection according to down—run or pass—during one-score games this season, or when the scoring margin between the Bulldogs and their opponent is seven points or less (resulted in 37.2 percent of the time/game clock). Each number of plays is followed by the average yards gained per play for every circumstance:

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UGA's Play Selection in 2017 During One-Score Games
DownRUNPASS

First

95 plays (5.43)

40 plays (10.00)

Second

58 plays (5.60)

39 plays (4.69)

Third

16 plays (7.44)

45 plays (8.69)

Fourth

2 plays (2.00)

0 plays (n/a)

TOTAL

171 plays (5.64)

124 plays (7.85)

Ignoring the various downs and yards gained per play, and only considering the runs and passes (171 to 124), Smart is correct in saying Georgia is more balanced during one-score games—58.0% run, 42% pass—but perhaps that’s not balanced enough. Of course, the more balanced the Bulldogs are the less standout running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel get their hands on the football.

“We continue to improve on our balance—our ability to throw the ball down the field, our ability to open things up,” Smart said. “But if we open things up and threw the ball down the field, I would beg to question what we're doing with No. 27 and No. 1 (Chubb and Michel) the rest of the time.”

The final notion concerning Georgia’s imbalance is associated with personnel, as well—not a lack thereof as before, but tremendous productivity from the personnel in the Bulldogs’ backfield. Led by Chubb and Michel, Georgia’s current adjusted yards per carry (rushing yards + yards lost on sacks/adjusted rushing attempts) is 6.14, which ranks 10th in the FBS and is the second highest for the Bulldogs since 1993, trailing only 2014 (6.43). This perhaps leads to the question: Why should Georgia become more balanced when its dominant rushing attack has been an integral part of the team winning games? And I’d reply by asking, remember at Auburn a couple of weeks ago when the Bulldogs’ ground attack was stymied—and they lost the game?

When facing a really good team, featuring a deep, standout defensive front, an offense most likely needs to be balanced to succeed—the Bulldogs’ poor offensive showing on the Plains proved as much. Accordingly, whether it’s adjusting, developing, or an improvement in Georgia’s personnel, and/or altering their play-calling, the Bulldogs need to become more balanced—and soon—because there are really good teams remaining to play en route to a possible championship.

“So, it's a Catch-22 to be balanced,” Smart concluded. “But at the end of the day to win, you got to be able to do both (run and pass)—and when you play really good teams, you got to be able to do both.”

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