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December 23, 2008
Poinsettia Bowl features two powerful teams
It just doesn't seem right.
Boise State goes 12-0, making it one of the just two unbeaten teams in the FBS (Division I-A), and all the Broncos get is a bid to the … Poinsettia Bowl?
"I feel bad because we've got very, very good football teams in this country that are not members of BCS conferences," Fresno State coach Pat Hill said after his Bulldogs were beaten by Boise State in the regular-season finale. "And I think that's getting shown more all the time."
Utah, which also is 12-0, finished higher in the final BCS standings and was thus picked to play in the BCS - in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama. Boise State was passed over by the Fiesta Bowl, which selected Ohio State (10-2) to play Texas.
"They're a BCS-caliber football team," TCU coach Gary Patterson said of Boise State. "They're a good football team."
As a result of the BCS bypassing Boise State, the Poinsettia Bowl gained a marquee matchup. The Broncos will be pitted against TCU (10-2) in what shapes up as perhaps the top non-BCS bowl.
"It should be a great game with a lot of national interest," Patterson said. Patterson is correct. And it makes you wonder what would happen if the non-"Big Six" schools broke away and formed their own division, complete with an eight- or a 16-team playoff?
It's unlikely to happen. Still, the BCS should consider altering its format to guarantee non-"Big Six" teams that finish in, say, the top 10 of the final BCS standings a BCS bowl berth. It seems disingenuous to award a lower-ranking "Big Six" conference champion an automatic BCS bowl berth over a higher-ranking non-"Big Six" team.
That's why Boise State and TCU find themselves here instead of playing in a BCS bowl. Boise finished No. 9 in the BCS standings and TCU was 11th. Conversely, Big East champ Cincinnati was 12th and ACC champ Virginia Tech was 19th.
TCU run offense vs. Boise State run defense
The Horned Frogs have a tough, nasty and physical ground game that churns out 215.7 yards per game. But the Broncos counter with a rugged defense that ranks 15th in the nation against the run (104.9 ypg). It's important for TCU to control the ball to keep it away from Boise's strong offense. If TCU doesn't run effectively, it's not going to win.
TCU pass offense vs. Boise State pass defense
Horned Frogs QB Andy Dalton isn't a dynamic passer. Dalton has just 11 TD passes, but he does a little bit of everything well in a varied attack. Witness his 358 rushing yards and eight TDs on the ground. Still, Dalton could find few holes to exploit against a Broncos defense led by CB Kyle Wilson. Boise has picked off 20 passes and allowed only a 51.3 percent completion percentage.
Boise State run offense vs. TCU run defense
Ian "Will you marry me?" Johnson is a formidable runner who knows how to deliver in big games. But good luck finding room to run against a TCU defense that allows foes just 48.7 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the nation.
Boise State pass offense vs. TCU pass defense
Is there a better freshman quarterback in the nation than Boise's Kellen Moore? He has completed 70 percent of his passes for 3,264 yards and 25 TDs. He'll test a salty Horned Frogs secondary with a plethora of targets, including Jeremy Childs, Vinny Perretta and Julian Hawkins. But quarterbacks have completed just 49 percent of their passes, with eight touchdowns and 14 picks, against TCU. The Horned Frogs are ninth in the nation in pass defense (166.4 ypg).
TCU special teams vs. Boise State special teams
Boise State has a killer weapon in Kyle Brotzman, who pulls double-duty for the Broncos as a punter and kicker. Boise State has been one of the nation's best at blocking kicks, deflecting 15 the past two years. TCU has the athletes to cover, and kicker Ross Evans is an emerging weapon. However, he missed on two big kicks in a loss at Utah.
TCU coaches vs. Boise State coaches
TCU's Gary Patterson and Boise State's Chris Petersen are two of the best coaches in America. Patterson is a defensive mastermind whose teams are renowned for their toughness. Petersen is a brilliant offensive tactician and primo game planner who figures to have a few special tricks cooked up for the game. Remember that win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago?
X-factor: Keep an eye on Boise punt returner Kyle Wilson. In what looks like a tight game, Wilson could be a difference-maker with a big runback. He has returned three punts for TDs this season – the most in the nation – and is averaging 14.7 yards per return.
TCU will win if: The Horned Frogs need to run well and score more than 30 points. The Horned Frogs tallied 32 points in a big win over BYU. TCU moved the ball against Oklahoma and Utah, but the Horned Frogs scored just 10 points in each loss.
Boise State will win if: When people talk about Boise State, they always gush about the offense. But the Broncos have a strong defense. If the unit plays with the passion and aggressiveness it has shown all season, the Broncos should mute a pedestrian TCU offense and could blow out the Horned Frogs.
Tom Dienhart is the national senior writer for Rivals.com and Yahoo! Sports. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.